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These
are some of the things that Blackjack players and gamblers alike should
watch out for when they are betting their hard earned cash.
Believing That
Things Even Out
The games of
chance do not have memories. They are all based on mathematical
probability. Just because a roulette wheel comes up black nine times in a
row, the probability that the next number will be black will be the same
as when the game started. Past performance does not influence future
performance. This has become especially true with the continuous shufflers
that are in place at many Las Vegas casinos. As the casino tries to get
more hands played and offer a counter measure to card counters, Blackjack
has turned into a truly random game.
Betting
Optimistically
We tend to
overvalue the chance of something good happening and undervalue the chance
of something bad happening. For example, if winning the power ball has the
same odds as getting hit by lightning, we would consider winning the
lottery more probable than getting zapped by lightning. We all remember
drawing that 5 when we have 16, but we tend to forget the times we stood
on 16 versus a 10 and lost. The lines an optimisitic bettor uses are
things like "Yeah, but it won't happen to me", or
"Everybody's got to get hot sometime".
Preferring to
be a 'High Roller'
It's more
exciting to win one one-hundred dollar bet than grinding out a 100 dollar
win on a 5 dollar table. The bottom line is 100 dollars is still 100
dollars. The problem is that when we win at the low limit table we think
about what we could have won. On our last trip to Las
Vegas, Caveman and I played at the $1 dollar table at Sahara. I walked
away winning 17 dollars for the evening. But that could have been 1700, if
I'd have bet 100 dollars! That sounds so much more exciting. The bottom
line though is never try to roll higher than your bankroll
justifies.
Remembering
streaks; ignoring runs
People notice the
unusual or uncommon. Long losing or winning streaks tend to stick out in
people's minds. Smaller runs just don't register. For this reason,
extremes are remembered to occur more frequently than the actually did.
However, Blackjack is a game of runs. Small runs. What matters in winning
Blackjack are the sessions where you net small gains. Pay more attention
to what's happening in the short run while you play the game. If you are
winning 6 out of every 11 hands, you are winning (especially if you win
the double downs and splits). But make sure you keep track of the losing
as well. Read our discussions on how to bet and how to manage yourself.
One good way to do this is to inventory your chips after each shuffle or
at a designated interval of time.
Overestimating
the importance of skill
"Probabilities
direct the conduct of the wise man"~Cicero The only results you
can count on are the long term probabilities of the game. One of the most
dangerous things a player, especially a new player can encounter is
a big winning session. This may cloud your perception of your skill and
the importance it played in winning that money. Do not overestimate the
importance of probability in the game and do not become over confident, or
"expect" to win at the game and bet accordingly.
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